Actual returns in search

I'm not sure who needs to hear this, but I think it's important for everyone to know that while search can be a really attractive asset class, the average returns quoted in the Stanford study are very inflated.

I've gotten to see the returns of several blue chip institutional and individual investors who have been doing this for 20+ yrs, and no one is over 30% IRR. These investors are no doubt top quartile, and so my guess is average returns are 10% or so.

Why does this matter? For investors, it's not as though you are cherry picking in a pool that will average 33%, you need to really do the work.

For searchers, there are many examples of businesses that have gone south and the idea that 50% of people who do search will have a good outcome is just not true. You really need to buy the right company, and put the right advisors in place.

I say this after seeing a company blow up this week, searchers bankrupt (and in a very bad state mentally). All of which is avoidable, and IMO probably caused in large part because we see the Stanford avg MOIC/IRR so many times, this stuff starts to seem easy, it's not!