Assessing Regulatory Risk in an Education Deal
In a recent discussion about a potential education roll-up, the searcher raised a point that’s easy to leave until later: the schools may look attractive today, but how exposed are they if federal education rules become more demanding?
Today’s rules are not the 2023-era ones. The debt-to-earnings test has been replaced by a “do no harm” earnings test, and 90/10 still applies. A change in Congress could revive tougher versions, like debt-to-earnings or 85/15. We’re not predicting that. We’re asking how exposed each school would be if it happened.
The next step we discussed was putting together a simple view of what each policy could test and what we’d need to check at each school things like reliance on federal aid, student outcomes and the mix of revenue sources.
It’s a useful way to think about diligence: not just asking whether the numbers work today, but what could put pressure on them later.
For those who’ve looked at education businesses, how do you build possible regulatory changes into your diligence?