Fuel Surcharges of Lack Thereof
Should I call it?? I have a business under contract in the septic & grease trap pumping space. This is essentially a logistics company--moving stuff from one place to another. The key inputs are fuel, dump fees, & truck costs (as well as labor, obviously, insurance, etc.). The Iran war disruption has caused diesel prices to go through the roof. There is uncertainty about the price of oil, for sure. It seemed like maybe it was a temporary thing, but now it seems like the price of oil/gas is not coming down any time soon. I calculated that diesel prices probably went up 30-35%. A few days ago, the seller told me that he has been spending thousands more per month on diesel...and is considering a fuel surcharge...now...after months of this. Septic and grease trap pumping are both very competitive. The septic side contends with random guys in trucks who can't do math well and probably don't realize how much they are actually working for. The grease trap side contends with PE backed companies that own their own grease processing facilities. The seller also has two government contracts to pump septic systems. These are multi-year contracts. One of them is with the federal gov't and has slight increases each year baked in. The other--I have not seen and so I am not sure. One of my concerns is that neither of these contracts will allow for fuel surcharges. I am not sure, but that is a possibility. Then you get to a place where you are possibly only breaking even or working with much less profit on these contracts. These contracts account for probably 15-20% of the business I have the business under contract for like 4.2 SDE multiple. The tax returns actually showed more SDE than the P & L's, so my multiple may be closer to a 4 based on 3 year average SDE--but it is in the $250k-$350k range. I have negotiated some seller financing with pretty good terms. All that to say, I am curious what you all think about this situation. I am leaning toward killing it and walking away. I am concerned the two gov't contracts might just be an obligation to earn reduced profit there or walk. I am concerned the seller waited so long to consider a fuel surcharge. It is a bad idea to assume the seller is just dumb. Sometime sellers can be lazy or unmotivated, but they aren't dumb. I wonder if there is very little room to raise prices due to the competition and he is afraid of that. I am concerned that fuel continues to go higher (at very least, I don't think it's coming down anytime soon). I just don't feel comfortable I was going to take a reduced salary the first couple years and he just told me A) revenue is down some compared to last year (still haven't seen YTD financials so I don't know how much) and B) profit margin is down like 15% because he has eaten the increased fuel charge without raising prices. That is essentially most of my salary. Would you walk? Any thoughts are welcome.