How much chain share is too much in a target’s local market?
I’ve been counting chain locations on map listings in seven trades that roll-ups like, metro by metro. The spread between metros surprised me. Share of locations that belong to a chain: U.S. overall, the typical metro, and the lowest and highest metros (metros with 30+ listings in the trade): Pest control: 24% overall, 24% typical. From 10% in Oxnard–Ventura, CA to 64% in Greensboro–High Point, NC. Car washes and detailers: 23% overall, 24% typical. From 0% in Bellingham, WA to 53% in Fayetteville–Springdale–Rogers, AR. Vets: 19% overall, 18% typical. From 3% in Longview, TX to 38% in Salt Lake City. Dentists and orthodontists: 16% overall, 17% typical. From 2% in Dover, DE to 37% in The Villages, FL. Funeral homes: 13% overall, 15% typical. From 0% in Poughkeepsie–Newburgh, NY to 55% in El Paso, TX. HVAC and plumbing: 5% overall, 5% typical. From 0% in Chambersburg, PA to 24% in Muncie, IN. Landscaping: 5% overall, 5% typical. From 0% in Anchorage to 13% in Charleston, SC. A few things I take from it: The same trade can be a very different deal depending on the metro. A pest control company in Greensboro has chains behind nearly two of every three locations around it. In Ventura it’s one in ten. A high chain share cuts both ways. It means well-funded competitors for customers and techs. It also shows there are buyers in that market when you exit. A low share doesn’t always mean nobody has bought in. Many platforms keep the local name and website after they buy, so a count like HVAC’s 5% probably understates how consolidated it is. When you look at a target, does a high chain share in its market push you away or pull you in? And how do you find out which local names are actually owned by a platform? If you want the numbers for the trade and metro you’re searching in, reply with both and I’ll pull them.