It feels like the $1M line is splitting the market?
BizBuySell's Q3 2026 report has one number I keep coming back to. Businesses that sold for more than $1M were 22% of closings, the highest share on record. Above that line, the average multiple was 3.73x cash flow and deals closed at 101% of ask. Below it, the average was 2.3x and 94% of ask. Closings over $1M were up 8% year over year, and closings under $1M were down 10%. This makes sense given the changes around SBA and interest rates this year.
Here's what that looks like in supply on Baton right now. 131 listings are live (not under contract, coming soon, etc.). The median ask is about $1.0M, and 67 ask $1M or more, and 64 ask less. 78 list $250K or more of cash flow, and 43 list $500K or more. nearly 40% of our sales are $1M+ and at 105% of ask and a 4.0x multiple. Under $1M was 86% of ask and at a 2.5x multiple.
What that means if you're buying: above $1M, expect to pay at or over ask and compete on certainty, not price. Below it, there's room to negotiate, but underwrite the add-backs hard. In a sample of 21 live Baton listings we looked at earlier this month, add-backs were half or more of the priced cash flow in 9.
What floor are you screening on, and is it a decision or a default?
Buyer accounts are free on baton.com, btw! ;)