Search Update - February

Seek the bypass. In mechanized warfare, you don't assault a well-defended position through open terrain. You find the gaps, maneuver around the enemy, and strike from a position of advantage. February was that kind of month. For the first time, I’m attaching a pipeline dashboard. The file is an HTML and should display in any browser. It covers deal flow trends, IOI activity, industry breakdown, and market context. If you're viewing this on your phone, you'll want it to orient to landscape — it will make the dashboard easier to view. What I'm working on The most exciting development this month came from a referral. The company is a services business in the PNW with a motivated owner who is genuinely ready to sell. We have an NDA in place, financials are coming, and I'm maintaining the momentum. It's early, but it's real, and it has my full attention. Pipeline health 30 deals entered the pipeline in February, bringing the total to 469 since inception. My discipline and deal evaluation systems are working. Of those that reached the CIM-review stage this month, only 26% advanced to pre-IOI diligence. The top pass reasons this month were customer concentration and valuation expectations. The brokered market remains competitive and expensive. Valuation is the recurring challenge. It's a predictable consequence of a crowded field. There are more private equity firms in the United States than McDonald's franchise locations. That translates into relentless outbound: owners are getting hit constantly, and their inboxes show it. The same crowding effect shows up in the brokered channel. More buyers per quality deal means more competitive auctions and higher prices. Proprietary sourcing February produced the clearest data yet on where effort inside the proprietary channel is best spent: the phone. I placed 30 cold calls this month and saw roughly 10% convert to owners open to a sale conversation. Email generates reply rates around 6%, but only 2–3% express genuine interest. Owners will tell you themselves; they're drowning in cold outreach emails. A phone call is a meaningful differentiator. Calling is now a fixed part of my weekly cadence and the volume of calls is going to grow. Heading into March Proprietary (off-market) sourcing is the main effort. It’s the clear path that will bypass the red-ocean environment of on-market deals. Phone calls will be the main effort Once I‘ve vetted fit and financials are in hand, the goal is to move quickly to a clear view on valuation. On the brokered side, the focus is faster decisions. Additionally, I’m enforcing a tighter decision cadence. I’ve been dragging out deals longer than I should. If a deal is in a gray zone, it gets a defined next action and a short clock. If it can’t clear quickly, I’m taking a view and reallocating time to better opportunities. How you can help (my only ask) If you come across a business in WA or FL that provides essential goods or services and generates $750k–$3mm in EBITDA or pre-tax profit, I'd greatly appreciate an introduction. Your continued support means more than you know. Alex