The Next Acquisition Bubble? Why Buyers Should Be Cautious Right Now
Just stopping in with a bit of a PSA from someone who has built businesses, scaled them, and experienced firsthand how quickly things can change.
Be very careful buying businesses in decline right now. The dangerous part is that they don't always look like they're declining at first glance.
Industries are evolving at an unprecedented pace. Technology is disrupting established business models, consumer behavior is shifting, and markets are moving in directions we haven't seen before.
I've personally watched one of my own companies go from a multi-seven-figure annual revenue run rate to almost nothing in just 12 months. It was a humbling experience and one that fundamentally changed how I evaluate businesses.
Over the past several months, I've analyzed dozens of acquisition opportunities, and what concerns me is how many businesses appear financially healthy on paper but may actually be sitting on the edge of a significant decline.
Historical earnings don't guarantee future performance. A business that generated $500K in SDE last year isn't necessarily worth a 3–4x multiple if the underlying industry, customer demand, or competitive landscape is fundamentally changing.
I genuinely believe the small-business acquisition market could be setting itself up for the next bubble. Too many buyers are underwriting yesterday's performance rather than tomorrow's risks.
If you're not stress-testing your acquisitions against meaningful downside scenarios, you're doing yourself a disservice. And when buyers continue paying inflated multiples for businesses with deteriorating fundamentals, it impacts the broader acquisition market and fellow searchers as well.
Stay disciplined. Question the numbers. Understand what's changing in the industry you're buying into. And don't let the excitement of getting a deal done override rational decision-making.
Sometimes the best deal is the one you walk away from.
Stay rational, and happy hunting!