Trade War: Sellers market --> Buyers market
April 18, 2025
by a searcher from Stanford University in Chicago, IL, USA
Hey all,
Curious to hear your thoughts on the impact of tariffs and the trade war on the state of the market.
I run a small business equipment finance lending company and we lend to thousands of small businesses--we're hearing and seeing delinquencies and losses creep up across the small business landscape generally, and I suspect we'll continue to see that if this trade war persists.
Speculation aside, are any of you seeing actual evidence of or hints towards a shift in the market away from sellers and towards buyers?
Are you seeing more distressed businesses up for sale?
Are you seeing a softening of transaction multiples?
Cheers,
Ahmed
from St. Cloud State University in Sheridan, WY 82801, USA
1. Seller posturing is softening not necessarily on price, but on structure. Earnouts, seller notes, delayed payout mechanics are becoming more common, especially with founder-led businesses where fatigue or uncertainty is creeping in.
2. Leverage isn’t gone. We’re seeing some lenders step up aggressively even offering 100% conventional financing with no equity injection when the deal is clean, the team is real, and compliance is tight. So capital is out there, just more selective.
3. Tariffs aren’t hitting every sector equally. Manufacturing, imports, and product-based businesses are feeling it first. But in regulated or service-heavy verticals, it’s more about labor cost, payer pressure, or local demand softness than international policy.
4. If this becomes a true buyer’s market, it won’t look like a collapse it’ll look like more complex deals getting done with less founder leverage. That’s the shift we’re starting to sense.
from The University of Chicago in Chicago, IL, USA