What's a good multiple on an industrial maintenance company?

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October 25, 2024

by a searcher from Queen's University in Kelowna, BC, Canada

Hi there, I'm looking at a Canadian industrial maintenance company with < 1M EBITDA that plays in a space this is very recession proof. Further, my assessment is that when the Canadian dollar is weak, it drives up the price of the downstream commodities affected, which should increase production and hence maintenance work. When the Canadian dollar is weak, it should drive up capital purchase and thus more work with installations.

A few questions:
1) Is my assessment of the above hedge dynamics correct?
2) What's a fair multiple for a business like this?
3) The business is in growth mode and hence, there's a push to value it only on trailing twelve months. What's the group's take on that?

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Reply by a searcher
from IESE Business School in Madrid, EspaƱa
1) Certainly when someone’s country currency is weak, exports increase. Therefore, if the company is serving exporting industrial companies, then you’re right, growth will spur. If they produce for national consumption then it won’t matter.

2) An industrial maintenance company is quite sought after due to its recurring revenues. Multiples depend mostly on geography. I don’t know in Canada but in south US multiples could trade up to 7-8x.

3) you must analyze the quality of earnings. If they’re in full growth mode maybe they’ve acquired contracts with little margin and it will show in a few months/years when the weight of those sales are higher.
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Reply by a professional
from University of Southern California in North Palm Beach, FL, USA
Focusing on the multiple is the tail wagging the dog. Focus on the sustainability of the business after it changes hands.
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